America's Best Racing. The Jockey Club.

Jockey James Graham

Keeneland Race Course was the first track in America to install Trakus. With only six weeks of racing each year, it takes a considerable amount of time to build a significant and still meaningfully recent sample to analyze jockey performance. Trakus assembled jockey data over the last four meets (Fall 2010 through Spring 2012) using races run at the two most frequently used distances on Polytrack – six furlongs and 1 1/16 miles.  In last week’s blog, we identified that the winners at Keeneland over the two distances studied did in fact cover the shortest trip. 

Below, the chart identifies each post position and the average number of feet covered by every starter tracked by Trakus at the last four meets at Keeneland. Next, the “Delta” is the difference between that post’s average ground coverage and the most efficient post – in other words, this is extra ground a horse would be expected to cover based solely on post position. The delta is then converted to lengths for enhanced applications. For example, breaking from post six going 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack, the average of all horses who started from that gate during the period studied at Keeneland was 5,694 feet, 23 feet more than horses who break from post one. 23 feet equates to roughly 2.71 lengths of extra ground. These same numbers below are what each jockey’s performance is compared against, based on their starting post, when developing the Jockey Efficiency Ratings.

The numbers above are what could essentially be termed a straight-line post-position handicap. Incrementally, the farther out your post, the more ground you are expected to cover in running. Considering the numbers quoted in last week’s blog, this is meaningful. The average winner over these distances in the last four meets covered the shortest average trip.

While regular readers of this blog might recognize the repetitious nature of our next comment, we don’t hesitate to remind that we recognize inside travel isn’t always best for each horse. Each race’s dynamics offers different scenarios that jockeys interpret and act upon within fractions of a second. The jockeys listed in the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings below are ranked by order of their ability to save ground relative to the averages expected based on their post positions. A negative delta indicates the jockey saves that much ground on average, in feet, of all the mounts studied. A positive delta signifies ground covered above the average expected from their starting post position. In order for a jockey to qualify for inclusion in the study, they were required to have at least 30 combined mounts over the distances studied in the last four seasons.

Takeaways from the Jockey Efficiency Ratings at Keeneland

• James Graham emerges as the clear-cut leader in efficient trips, bolstered even further with a positive ROI over an astonishing 154 mounts. His horses were routinely sent off at longer odds as well, averaging roughly 13-1 on all mounts studied.
• John McKee, despite not winning a race at these specific distances, was widely disparate in his rides, saving plenty of ground in two turn races (-3.88ft), but eschewing that need in sprints (6.27).
• Gabriel Saez barely qualified for the study based on his number of mounts but clearly paid close attention to saving ground with a third and a second overall ranking at the distances studied.
• Calvin Borel, renowned for his rail-riding penchant at Churchill, does not seem to share the same sentiment at Keeneland, covering a significant amount of ground above average at both distances studied.
• Jon Court found himself riding relatively even with expected averages but sported gaudy ROI numbers off the mounts he booted home.

There is surely much to digest within the numbers above and we offer the totals for your own dissemination. Trakus takes your observational anecdotes and quantifies them based on the data collected. While countless variables exist within each race and each ride, the quantified “big picture” is a fascinating one.  As always, your comments are welcomed below. Good luck at the 2012 Keeneland fall meet!