America's Best Racing. The Jockey Club.

Uncaptured (Inside) and Miguel Mena win the 86th Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. (Photo Courtesy Eclipse Sportswire)

I’ll readily admit that the impressive performances in the Kentucky Jockey Club may have been lost in the shuffle of Thanksgiving, and the preparation of the data for the seasonal launches of Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs. Run as part of Churchill’s “Stars of Tomorrow” card, the race took on a storyline of its own when speed figure disciples were aflutter regarding the low Beyer numbers assigned to winner Uncaptured, and subsequently, the rest of the field. 

Regardless of how fast the field ran (which was definitely slower than a maiden race on the program), second and third place finishers Frac Daddy and Dewey Square appeared to run impressive races when compared to the five-time stakes winner Uncaptured. 

All racing forward, Uncaptured established a two-wide position around the first turn, flanked even wider by Ken McPeek trainee Frac Daddy.  Dewey Square, making his stakes debut, settled in fifth, behind Frac Daddy through the first turn.  As the bulky field of 13 moved around the far turn, Frac Daddy engaged Uncaptured and the two took off in a protracted 2.5-furlong battle.  Dewey Square remained planted wide through the far turn, and found his best stride late, running on to catch third. 

Below is the data from the race, which includes the feet traveled per horse, delta (difference in feet traveled when compared to the winner), the actual margin, Trakus-Adjusted Margin (explanation below), and final fractions recorded.

As noted by the negative numbers in the “TA Margin” column, both Frac Daddy and Dewey Square traveled more ground than their margin of defeat indicated, with Dewey Square going to equivalent of 4.82 lengths more than Uncaptured.  Taking his actual margin of defeat (1.25 lengths) and subtracting the delta (the extra number of feet he traveled compared to winner, converted to lengths), provides the Trakus-Adjusted Margin of -3.57 lengths. 

It is worth noting that fifth place finisher Fear The Kitten recorded the fastest two and one-furlong splits in the race, while seventh placer Positively suffered from the wide trip when beaten six lengths, and also covered enough extra ground to account for his margin of defeat.

Below are the average speeds recorded for each 1/16^th segment in the race.  Trakus is constantly recording data as the race progresses, and these figures are the average speeds over each segment cumulatively.

Dewey Square ran the fastest race based on pure speed, covering extra ground, while Frac Daddy checked in next fastest.  Uncaptured and Positively tied for the third fastest.  Watching the race, it is difficult to actually see how the winner and the seventh placer average the same speed throughout the race.  Accounting for the extra ground Positively covered, and the speed and energy he needed to maintain that his position, the data becomes more logical.  Separations of one-tenth of a mile-per-hour might seem insignificant, but so too can the slimmest of margins when it could be the difference between winning and losing, third or fourth, or any other racing variable as the finite line that ends the race comes into play.

It might be early, and the speed figures may have yielded slow numbers, but based on the data above, and the fact the race was run at Churchill Downs, a friend grabbed a slice of the 65-1 Kentucky Derby future odds from the Wynn in Las Vegas.  It doesn’t take a huge outlay to cash big on one of these futures.  The Derby trail is a long, winding, treacherous road.  Following the data, maybe he’ll have to make a return trip to cash come May.

Jockey Miguel Mena celebrates after edging out Frac Daddy for the victory

Photo Courtesy Eclipse Sportwire