America's Best Racing. The Jockey Club.

Mystic Love, with jockey Elvis Trujillo on board, wins the Dania Beach Stakes (Photo Courtesy Eclipse Sportswire)

The weekend stakes action at Gulfstream Park was a lesson in the preferred hashtag of @TrakusRacing - #groundlossmatters. 

Charming Kitten was a hot even-money favorite in the Dania Beach Stakes, emerging from a two-month respite preceded by an even ninth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland and before that, a third in the With Anticipation (G2) at Saratoga.  But the son of Kitten’s Joy was planted in gate ten for the Dania Beach, forced to negotiate a trip from the widest draw.  In his first two career starts, he settled just off the pace, about two-lengths from the early leader.  If jockey John Velasquez was planning on keeping Charming Kitten close to the pace, it was likely to be at the expense of covering extra ground. 

And that was how the Dania Beach went down.

Charming Kitten broke towards the back of the pack, but rushed into a mid-pack stalking position around the first turn, about three-wide, and edged a bit closer to the front as the race progressed.  Mystic Love, breaking from post two, sat tidy on the rail throughout for jockey Elvis Trujillo.  Through the first four furlongs, Charming Kitten traveled 24 feet more than Mystic Love, the equivalent of about 2.8 lengths. 

Leaving the backstretch, Mystic Love retained a position in third on the rail, tracking leader Tate’s Landing, while Charming Kitten, who was running fourth and flanking Mystic Love, angled out.  The presence of 20-1 outsider Reporting Star, racing second at the time just to the outside of Tate’s Landing, essentially forced the hand of Velasquez to either take up and angle in behind Mystic Love (potentially stalling Charming Kitten’s momentum and just putting his mount in a tough spot) or remain wide, but in the clear. 

Past the midpoint of the far turn, Tate’s Landing came off the rail slightly, and Trujillo guided Mystic Love through the opening while Charming Kitten remained on the wide path.  Overall, Charming Kitten covered 26 feet more than Mystic Love around that final turn, and for the race, made it an even 50 feet of additional coverage. 

 
The final margin of the race was a half-length, but Charming Kitten covered the equivalent of an extra 5.9 lengths.  In the chart above, “Ft to Len” is the conversion of the “Delta” from feet to lengths, while the “TA Margin” is the equation of the “Actual Margin” less the “Ft to Len.” conversion.  You will notice that both fourth placer Itsmyluckyday and fifth placer Reporting Star covered more ground (when converted to lengths) than their margin of defeat, while third placer Newfound Zapper and sixth home Squall King saw their Trakus-adjusted margins get to less than a length within Mystic Love.

While there was significantly less strategy involved in Sunday’s Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream, the data tells the overall story.  Csaba, a handy winner by 3 ¾ lengths, remained glued to the rail throughout, while well-supported Delegation was wider on both turns, covering almost 6 ¼ lengths more than the winner. 

Trakus returns on the Southern California racing circuit next week with the shift of racing back to Santa Anita.  It should be an exciting way to end the year!  Happy holidays to all.