1. Far Right 

Eclipse Sportswire

I hate to be that guy — scratch that, no I don’t — who says I told you so, but I thought Far Right’s Smarty Jones Stakes win was vastly undervalued. Because Mr. Z raced so erratically through the stretch, many people tabbed Far Right as lucky to win but he proved he is the better horse in the Southwest Stakes. He earned a new career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 106 that puts him in the ballpark with the top 3-year-olds and earned his first graded stakes win in the Southwest. He showed he can overcome traffic trouble in winning the Smarty Jones and proved he could run a big one on a wet track in the Southwest … and, yes, I know trainer Ron Moquett said he didn’t care for the sloppy surface. Far Right is headed in the right direction and has the type of running style that leads me to believe he will a factor in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.

2. International Star

Eclipse Sportswire

I was not floored by International Star’s Lecomte Stakes win on Jan. 17, but his Risen Star Stakes victory on Feb. 21 was very professional and I’m now on board. He’s legit. Like Far Right, I view International Star as a 3-year-old on the rise. His Risen Star Equibase Speed Figure of 103 represents a new career top, but the race doesn’t on paper look like a knockout performance. He improved his speed figure by four points from the Lecomte and could be set to take another step forward in his next start. By 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, International Star has some class in his pedigree. He is a sibling to a pair of stakes winners and names like 1998 Blue Grass Stakes winner and sire Halory Hunter and Group 2 winner and sire Van Nistelrooy appear deeper in his pedigree. He has just enough speed to stay within striking distance of a fast pace or settle a little closer if the tempo is easier and then launch his bid.

3. Khozan

Lauren King/Gulfstream Park

Every year racing fans are inundated with history lessons about which horses can’t win the Kentucky Derby because of too much time off before the first jewel of the Triple Crown, too few starts at three, a trainer who brushes his hair in the morning before his teeth or whatever stat supports the lame argument. Probably the biggest one is the curse of Apollo, which Khozan would have to overcome to win the Kentucky Derby. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without a race as a 2-year-old. While I will reluctantly agree that there is some merit to this angle because a strong foundation is necessary for a horse to excel despite the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, it’s just a matter of time before a horse matches Apollo. Khozan looks like the best hope to do so since Curlin in 2007. With two dazzling wins by 3 ¾ and 12 ¾ lengths and Equibase Speed Figures of 112 for his debut and 108 for his allowance win on Feb. 22, Khozan appears to be as talented as any horse of this crop and certainly as fast. Combine that with an awesome pedigree — he is a half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to three-time champion Royal Delta and Grade 1 winner Crown Queen — and it’s pretty clear the future is bright for Khozan. Even if you don’t think he can win the Derby because of the Apollo curse, is there any doubt he could run in the top three? None here.

1. Imperia 

Eclipse Sportswire

The hype machine built Imperia up to an overwhelming 3-to-2 favorite for the Risen Star Stakes, which is pretty crazy considering he had never won a stakes race on the main track. Imperia owns a Grade 3 win on the turf as a 2-year-old and also ran quite well on the main track at Churchill Downs when second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in the fall, but he did not live up to expectations when fifth, beaten by 7 ½ lengths in the Risen Star. Hey, if you were on the Imperia bandwagon entering the Risen Star, I wouldn’t dismount now. It’s definitely possible that he just needed a race in his first start in 12 weeks, although I would have liked to have seen a bit more fight late in that race. He has a fantastic pedigree. His dam (mother), Cocoa Beach, was a multiple Grade 1 winner who finished second to Zenyatta in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic and he is by a very nice sire in Medaglia d’Oro. Right now, he’s off my Derby radar until he proves he can win a big race on the main track but definitely don’t take him out of your Virtual Stable.

2. Frosted 

Adam Coglianese/NYRA

After runner-up finishes in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes to close his 2-year-old season and the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes to open his 3-year-old campaign, there was hope Frosted would take a step forward in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He took the lead into the stretch as the second betting choice behind Upstart but then threw in the towel at the eighth pole and faded to fourth, beaten by 4 ¾ lengths. This is another colt who I wouldn’t give up on just yet, but he’s going to have to earn his way back into my top 20 Kentucky Derby hopefuls. His dam (mother), Fast Cookie, won the Grade 2 Cotillion Handicap at 1 1/16 miles and he’s by elite sire Tapit, so Frosted has every right to develop into a top runner. Right now, he simply appears to be a cut below the top 3-year-olds on the Derby trail.

TIE 3. Upstart, Mr. Z

Photo of Upstart by Eclipse Sportswire

I gave strong consideration to three horses for the final slot here: Bayerd, Mr. Z and Upstart. I tossed Bayerd because I was dubious of his runner-up finish in the Smarty Jones to begin with and didn’t have him rated very highly. It was a toss-up for me between Upstart and Mr. Z, so I just cheated and went with the pair. With Upstart, he proved he was the best horse despite the DQ from first to second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but it just wasn’t all that impressive to me. I guess I expected better from the horse who was third on my Derby list. He held onto a spot in the top 10, but barely (see below). As for Mr. Z, his Southwest Stakes third just confirmed to me that he’s more of the type of horse that likes to buddy up with another horse and gallivant down the stretch. No doubt, he’s an legitimate talent. I just don’t see that determination to win that I want in a top 10 Derby hopeful and I’m not sure how anyone could have him ranked above Far Right at this point. 

1. American Pharoah 
2. Ocho Ocho Ocho
3. Dortmund
4. Ocean Knight
5. Texas Red
6. Khozan
7. Far From Over
8. Far Right
9. International Star  
10. Upstart 

Four on the bubble: Firing Line, The Great War, Carpe Diem, War Story

Racing Terms

Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.

Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.

Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.

Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.

Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.

Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.

Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.

Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.

Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.

Dam – The mother of a horse.

Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.

Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.

Furlong – An eighth of a mile.

Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.

Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.

Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.

Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.

Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).

Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.

Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.

Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.

Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.

Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.

Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.

Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.

Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.

Sire – Father of a foal.

Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.