When the field breaks from the starting gate in the May 4 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve at Churchill Downs, as many as 20 still-developing 3-year-olds will race the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles while finishing on one of the longest main-track stretches in North America.

Pace could make the race, just as it did last year.

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Lively quarter-mile splits in the 2023 renewal, in which Verifying sped to the lead with factions of :22.35, :45.73, and 1:10.11, set the stage for closers to have success. Mage, still 14th at the six-furlong stage, passed 13 rivals and gained nine lengths on the leaders in the race’s closing half-mile to prevail. He crossed the finish line with a final time of 2:01.57.

Fellow closers Angel of Empire and Disarm would grab third and fourth, with only Two Phil’s having the staying power to threaten after being among the first five in the early going. He finished second, beaten by a length.

Though a quick pace in the Derby is more of the rule than the exception — Summer Is Tomorrow flew through the opening quarter-mile in 2022 in :21.78 in Rich Strike’s upset Derby win — there have been years in which the pace has unfolded at a more comfortable tempo.

Medina Spirit crossed the finish line first in the 2021 Derby, but he was disqualified later due to the prohibited race-day presence of betamethasone in his system. He established quarter-mile splits of :23.09, :46.70, and 1:11.21 and outlasted Mandaloun by a half-length, though the latter would ultimately be awarded the victory.

Authentic would also lead from start to finish in the 2020 Derby, which that year was contested in September as the race was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. He traveled the early stages of the race in :22.92, :46.41, and 1:10.23 en route to completing the distance in 2:00.61.

Authentic is one of just two wire-to-wire winners in the Derby since the turn of the century, the other being War Emblem in 2002.

The horses race on the backstretch in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Others such as Justify (2018), Always Dreaming (2017), and Nyquist (2016) were close early, pressing the pace in second when passing the finish line the first time after the opening quarter-mile dash.

Though most would agree that pace contributes to the outcome of the Derby, predicting who will lead early and at what pace is a challenge even for the most savvy handicapper. Poor starts from some competitors and the post-start shuffle in the massive field that typically follows can throw a wrench in a pace forecast.

That happened in 2021 when Rock Your World blew the break and his best chance, never getting close to Medina Spirit, either early or at the finish. Rock Your World finished 16th in the Derby after defeating Medina Spirit in front-running fashion a start earlier in the Santa Anita Derby.

So with that caveat — sometimes predicting the early leader is as tough as picking the winner — here’s one handicapper’s view of how the pace and flow of the classic will develop.

THE MAIN SPEED

Positioning is key entering the first turn in the Kentucky Derby. (Coady Media)

Dornoch, Just a Touch, Track Phantom

2023 Remsen Stakes and Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Dornoch, drawn inside, seems very likely to be sent under Luis Saez to secure position and avoid dirt in the colt’s face — conditions his connections felt he disliked when stalking inside until the stretch run of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, in which he ran fourth.

In front of him in the Blue Grass was pace-pressing Just a Touch, who pushed demanding fractions in the race before being caught by Sierra Leone. He has yet to lead in the early stages of any of his three races, but the early pace figure he earned in the Blue Grass, his first two-turn route, suggests he is one of the quickest in the field.

As for Track Phantom, he conversely exits two slow-paced races at Fair Grounds, but he is a horse who wants to lead. He has either been in front early or within a head of the pace in each of his seven starts. He also adds blinkers, which can lead to aggressiveness.

POSITIONAL SPEED TYPES

Champion Fierceness (Coady Media)

T O Password, Fierceness, and Epic Ride

The start has proved key for Fierceness throughout his career, with by far his best races coming when he has either been in front early or pressed the leader on the outside. The latter type of trip seems most likely in the Derby, given that Dornoch, Just a Touch, and Track Phantom are drawn inside of him.

Should Fierceness break well, one would expect to see the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa and 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance winner sitting up close on the outside early, maybe in the third or fourth spot, before dialing up the pressure down the backstretch.

Epic Ride, who drew into the race from the also-eligible list and is on the far outside, figures to run similarly. He, too, has won on the lead and from just off the pace.

T O Password, who just lasted to win the March 23 Fukuryu Stakes and qualify for the Derby, is a wild card, a tricky speed horse to evaluate coming from Japan. Foreign horses are often more likely to break poorly than their American counterparts, not being as familiar with United States starting gates and their crews.

STALKERS AND MIDPACK RUNNERS

Many others fall in this next flight, which seems a bit crowded. Horses such as Mystik Dan, Catalytic, Just Steel, Forever Young, West Saratoga, Domestic Product, Grand Mo the First, Stronghold, and Resilience have similar styles.

As a result, some of those drawn toward the outside, like Stronghold and Resilience, could have wide trips unless they are quick enough to clear much of the traffic.

Mystik Dan in post-position 3 is positioned to save ground, seemingly in a good spot. The Southwest Stakes winner and Arkansas Derby third-place finisher should be able to outbreak Sierra Leone in post-position 2 and follow Dornoch into the first turn. His jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., is savvy at riding the rail, particularly when a track shows an inside bias.

DEEP CLOSERS

Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Endlessly, and Society Man are very likely to rally from the back half of the pack.

A fast pace in the Derby would naturally assist their chances. Still, as Sierra Leone showed in winning the Risen Star Stakes in February at Fair Grounds, he can also close from behind slow splits.

Endlessly, who is untested on dirt after racing on turf and synthetic, possesses a closing style that puts him in a tricky position, as he could get discouraged by dirt kicked back in his face. The alternative option — racing wide — would lead to significant ground loss.

THE PACE VERDICT

This year’s Derby appears not to lack speed but is not loaded, either. With a straightaway for the opening quarter-mile, the first split is typically fast. Thereafter, the expectation is for a moderate tempo to unfold.

Take note that the Churchill Downs track is playing fast this year — so Authentic-like splits of :46.41, and 1:10.23 might be fractions that at least some of the front-runners can sustain.

For the talented Fierceness, my selection to win the Kentucky Derby, his chances probably hinge on his ability to break smoothly and avoid adversity, whether the pace is a tick or two faster than those aforementioned splits.