Veteran Horse Racing Writers Analyze the 2024 Kentucky Derby

Racing
Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone, Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Churchill Downs, Eclipse Sportswire
Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone should get an ideal setup in the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and looks like a logical win candidate Saturday at Churchill Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Bob Ehalt and Tom Pedulla became fast friends when they met on their first day at Fordham Preparatory School in the Bronx, N.Y., in 1970. Bob soon introduced Tom to the joys of Thoroughbred racing.

They have endured some rough moments at the track, with Tom taking exception when Bob repeatedly smacks him on the back with a program as one of their horses launches an all-out drive. Much to Tom’s chagrin and the amusement of onlookers, Bob has been known to call for security as he proceeds to cash a $27 triple.

They have owned a number of horses together and were part of the group that owned 1998 Whitney runner-up Tale of the Cat. They are often seen carrying on as if they never left their teenage years.

Here is their take on Saturday’s $5 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve :


PEDULLA: Bob, I looked hard for a longshot to upset the 150th Derby and cannot come up with one. As you know, pace makes the race and I think this one will be a scorcher with Dornoch breaking from the rail like a rocket for Luis Saez with erratic 2-year-old champion Fierceness and John Velazquez also forwardly placed. I believe this will provide the perfect set-up for deep closer Sierra Leone. The $2.3 million yearling, a son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, has been impressive in sweeping his only two starts this year, the Risen Star and the Blue Grass Stakes. He is all class and will give trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione their first Derby wins.

Sierra Leone, Eclipse Sportswire, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs
Highly regarded Sierra Leone (Eclipse Sportswire)

EHALT: Thomas, they say great minds think alike. Then there’s us. I’m with you on the Sierra Leone bandwagon. There should be a lively pace, which bodes well for his late kick. The concern, for me, is that he could get squeezed back at the start and lose a ton of ground. Still, I think he’ll have enough time and help on the front end to get there and give Chad Brown his initial Kentucky Derby win – if he can hold up under the weight of two well-known anchors known as Tom and Bob.

PEDULLA: Honor Marie took a nice step forward from a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star to a runner-up effort to Catching Freedom in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. Another forward move gives him a big shot. He has been training sharply at Churchill Downs, a track he relishes. He made his first three starts there and was never worse than second. His victories beneath the Twin Spires include the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to close an auspicious juvenile campaign. He is as handy as they come, a tremendous asset in a 20-horse Derby.

EHALT: To me, it’s a two-horse race between Sierra Leone and Fierceness. I think Fierceness has to bounce a bit off a huge race and with a few other speedsters in the race that may catch up with him in the final furlong. I wouldn’t not be surprised if he wins, but I’m going to slot him in for second and use him in my exotics. Being from Queens, I have to play a Mike Repole horse. Right?

PEDULLA: Bob, we both know Japan will win the Derby sooner rather than later. But I do not see Forever Young as the one. Yes, he is 5-for-5 but UAE Derby runners are 0-for-19 in Louisville. Forever Young’s trainer has admitted that travel from Japan to Saudi Arabia was hard on his horse. I cannot think Forever Young will be at his best in his bid to make history.

Forever Young, Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Eclipse Sportswire, Japan
Japan-based UAE Derby winner Forever Young (Eclipse Sportswire)

EHALT: I’ve been high on the Japanese horses the last few years and have been disappointed. As much as you know how wise and level-headed I am, I can be thick-headed at times. There’s no way I can change my thinking on backing a foreign runner with an unbeaten Japanese horse in the field who just might represent the country’s best chance to win the run for the roses. I’ve penciled in Forever Young for third.

PEDULLA: I am going to be bold and dismiss Fierceness. Past performances suggest that this colt that possesses brilliance is due for the third clunker of his career. He will give way to rallying Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom, yet another closer that benefits from the anticipated torrid pace.

EHALT: I do not know how he defies “Father Time,” but at the age of 88 trainer D. Wayne Lukas is having an amazing year. His horses have been on fire as his 2024 win rate of 15% is the highest since 2002 and his 46% in the money is the best since 1997 – when you were cruising around town thinking you were hot stuff in your 20-year-old Pinto. Just Steel turned in a superb effort to finish second in the Arkansas Derby and the way “The Coach” gets his horses fit, I expect another big showing from the 3-year-old. I’ve slotted him fourth here and will be making good use of him in my exotics. As much as I believe this will be a chalk-filled Derby, I need a price horse somewhere in the mix.

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