In the long history of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, the $1 million, Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa at Gulfstream Park ranks as the most important prep race. Among current Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers, the Florida Derby has churned out the most Kentucky Derby champions: 25 since 1953, including half a dozen since 2006.

If you’re thinking, “I’d sure like to pick the winner of the 2024 Florida Derby this Saturday,” we’ve got you covered. We’ve analyzed every Florida Derby since 2010 and compiled a list of trends and tendencies to separate key win contenders from longshots in the 1 1/8-mile race.

Here are half a dozen data points to aid your handicapping:

Pace makes the race

Since 2010, four editions of the Florida Derby have unfolded with a half-mile pace fraction in the :46-and-change range. The winners of those four Florida Derbies rallied from ninth place, eighth place, eighth place, and 11th place.

The other 10 Florida Derbies since 2010 have featured half-mile fractions slower than :47, and the 10 winners were all positioned in the front half of the field after half a mile. The takeaway? Pace makes the race in the Florida Derby. If you see a lot of speed in the entries and think the opening half-mile will elapse in :46 and change, bet on a stretch runner. Otherwise, favor horses with some tactical speed.

Favor horses starting at 5.40-1 or less

The Florida Derby draws a strong field each year, and it’s tough to beat the favorites. While top betting choices aren’t unstoppable, winning only three of the last 14 editions (21%), horses starting at odds of 5.40-1 or less have won 12 of the last 14 editions (86%).

Trainer Todd Pletcher is on a decade-long hot streak

Todd Pletcher (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Florida Derby boasts a long and rich history, but no trainer has won the race more times than Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, whose seven wins since 2007 include six wins in the last decade (2023, 2021, 2018, 2017, 2015, and 2014). Pletcher has won six of the last nine Florida Derbies in which he’s entered a horse, so any runner trained by Pletcher warrants respect.

John Velazquez is the winningest jockey

No jockey has won more Florida Derbies than Hall of Fame inductee John Velazquez, whose five victories since 2009 include three triumphs aboard Pletcher trainees (Materiality, Always Dreaming, and Audible). His last 10 rides in the Florida Derby have produced five wins, two seconds, two thirds, and a fourth.

Gulfstream Park locals are tough to beat

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Since 2010, 42 horses have recorded top-three finishes in the Florida Derby. No fewer than 36 exited prior races at Gulfstream, including 13 of the 14 winners.

The only Florida Derby winner in our sample who failed to prep at Gulfstream is future Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, who entered off a victory in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park in California. The other five non-Gulfstream runners who finished third or better in the Florida Derby exited races at nearby Tampa Bay Downs in Florida.

Gulfstream runners perform best in the Florida Derby, but there’s little rhyme or reason to the paths they employ to reach the Florida Derby winner’s circle. White Abarrio, Tiz the Law, and Audible won the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. Orb, Forte, and Ice Box exited the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Known Agenda, Always Dreaming, Constitution, Take Charge Indy, and Dialed In prepped in allowance races. Materiality emerged from the Islamorada Handicap, and Maximum Security prevailed in a starter optional claiming race.

In other words, don’t assume Florida Derby entrants exiting the Fountain of Youth or Holy Bull hold an edge over horses who prepped in less heralded contests. History suggests Florida Derby winners can come from anywhere, so long as “anywhere” refers to a race at Gulfstream Park.

Last-out winners have been dominant

Each of the last 11 Florida Derby winners entered Gulfstream’s signature Kentucky Derby prep off a victory. You have to go back to Take Charge Indy in 2012 to find the last Florida Derby winner who lost his prep race, so it pays to favor last-out winners when betting the Florida Derby.

Conclusions

Fierceness trains, Velazquez aboard (Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photo)

A field of 11 has turned out to contest the 2024 Florida Derby. The race doesn’t appear overly packed with pace on paper, so we’ll assume the opening half-mile fraction will be slower than :47, favoring horses with tactical speed.

Two of the key contenders in the Florida Derby are #9 Conquest Warrior and #10 Fierceness. Conquest Warrior enters off maiden and allowance optional claiming victories at Gulfstream, while Fierceness was voted champion 2-year-old male of 2023 after dominating the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. Both figure to start at odds of 5.40-1 or less.

Of the pair, history strongly favors Fierceness, a Todd Pletcher trainee with tactical speed. He was beaten to third place in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out, but sharp recent workouts suggest he’s capable of rebounding under regular rider John Velazquez.

Conquest Warrior deserves credit for exiting a victory at Gulfstream Park, but he’s a stretch-runner who has closed from the back half of the field in all three of his starts, so unless the early pace is quicker than expected he could find himself at a disadvantage.

Hades, who led almost all the way to upset Fierceness in the Holy Bull last time out, is another logical contender. He doesn’t have Pletcher and Velazquez in his corner, but assuming he starts at 5.40-1 or less, he’ll match the other four trends on our list.

Meanwhile, Bail Us Out is a longshot worth respecting. He’ll certainly start above 5.40-1, and it’s possible he’ll settle in the back half of the field early on, but on the plus side he’s a Pletcher trainee exiting victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Bail Us Out is eligible to outrun expectations in his stakes debut.

Good luck, and enjoy the race!