Welcome to 2024 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles – updated after the first jewel of the Triple Crown from the previous title of Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles – where we’ll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail.

This week’s profile, no surprise, is Mystik Dan, winner of the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek has yet to confirm Mystik Dan for the $2 million Preakness Stakes May 18 at Pimlico Race Course and could instead opt for the $2 million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets June 8 at Saratoga Race Course. So this week, we’ll take a closer look at Mystik Dan and how he might fit for both races in addition to his résumé, speed figures, running style, pedigree, and connections. Let’s get to it!

Racing Résumé: Mystik Dan’s résumé received the ultimate boost in the form of a victory in the first jewel of the Triple Crown, the 150^th Kentucky Derby. He improved to three wins, one second, and one third in seven starts. The bay colt also has a runaway victory in the $800,000 Southwest Stakes on a muddy main track and a third-place finish in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby among his other notable achievements.

Mystik Dan’s first two tries navigating two turns were unspectacular to say the least, a pair of fifth-place finishes in which he faded late, one in November 2023 and the other in January 2024. But he improved significantly in his next three races as Thoroughbreds often do late in their 2-year-old seasons or early in their 3-year-old campaigns, the latter being the case with Mystik Dan.

Mystik Dan’s breakout race came in his second start of the year and third try around two turns in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest Stakes Feb. 3 at Oaklawn Park. He simply swamped 10 opponents in an eight-length romp, which remains his fastest race to date (see speed figures below).

Winter weather had forced the postponement of the Southwest by a week, and McPeek opted not to bring Mystik Dan back from the Southwest on three weeks of rest in the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes Feb. 24. Instead, he targeted the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby March 30. Mystik Dan was beaten by 6 ¼ lengths when third behind Muth in that race, which was a big reason he was sent off at 18.61-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby.

In the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby, Mystik Dan needed to rebound from a somewhat disappointing race in the Arkansas Derby. He did just that and also benefitted by a perfect trip engineered by jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. The rider tucked Mystik Dan in behind the speed while saving ground early in eighth, moved up to track from fourth after three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.31, then urged his mount through a narrow opening on the rail to take command in the stretch.

Credit Mystik Dan for pushing through a hole that opened and then semi-closed while battling through some jostling to make his way to the front. From there, he completed the final quarter-mile in :25.88 to narrowly hold off late-rallying Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the first three-horse photo finish in the Derby since 1947. It was a hell of a race and a career-defining win.

“Between the post-position draw [Post #3] and the job that Brian did gave us a huge opportunity because we saved ground, saved ground, saved ground,” winning trainer Kenny McPeek said. “And when you look at that photo finish, I think we needed all of it to hold off the two second- and third-place horses [Sierra Leone and Forever Young].”

Speed Figures: Mystik Dan entered the Kentucky Derby with a career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure and 101 Beyer Speed Figure, both earned in the Southwest Stakes. He regressed to a 106 Equibase figure and an 89 Beyer Speed Figure in the Arkansas Derby and needed to regain his top form on Kentucky Derby day. According to the speed-figure makers he got there with a 109 Equibase Speed Figure and a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, both one tick off his best and essentially matching his best race.

Running Style: Mystik Dan has nice tactical speed for a stalker-closer type. He showed that when pressing the pace in his first two career starts, both in sprints, and obviously was fast enough to emerge unscathed from an inside post in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field to gain good early position. From what I’ve seen throughout his career, I believe Mystik Dan gives jockey Hernandez options. In a field with eight to 14 horses in the Preakness or Belmont Stakes, he could settle closer to a moderate pace or drop back if the early pace is especially swift.

Hernandez said Mystik Dan’s cruising speed made a huge difference in the Derby: “Going down the backside, the nice thing about really talented horses, they went [:46.63 for a half-mile] in front of us, but my horse … he was just cruising along so nicely and so comfortable, it never felt like we were going that quickly.”

Connections: Mystik Dan is owned by the partnership of Arkansans Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing (Brent Gasaway and his wife, Sharilyn Gasaway), Daniel Hamby III, and Valley View Farm (Scott Hamby). Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby bred the colt out of the Colonel John mare Ma’am in Kentucky.

“We feel like we are just ordinary people and we have got just an amazing horse that God gave us,” Sharilyn Gasaway said after the Derby.

Kentucky resident Kenny McPeek planned the mating of Ma’am to the stallion Goldencents, and the foal that combination produced anchored a banner weekend for him in Louisville. McPeek won the Longines Kentucky Oaks with Thorpedo Anna and then won the Derby with Mystik Dan the next day. In 150 years, the same trainer has swept the Oaks and Derby only four times and the last one to do so was Ben Jones all the way back in 1952. McPeek also completed a career sweep of the U.S. Triple Crown races having won the Belmont Stakes in 2002 with 70.25-1 longshot Sarava and the Preakness in 2020 with the filly Swiss Skydiver. McPeek has amassed more than 2,000 wins since taking out his trainer’s license in 1985.

Derby winners Hernandez and Mystik Dan. (Coady Media)

Underrated jockey no more! Brian Hernandez Jr. has been a fixture in Kentucky for many years and won his share of awards and big races, notably the Eclipse Award as outstanding apprentice jockey in 2004 and the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic aboard Fort Larned. He’s been a terrific and respected Kentucky-based rider who has amassed more than 2,500 wins in his career. But when you sweep the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby at the milestone 150^th celebration of both races, you become a household name. A 38-year-old rider from Lafayette, La., Hernandez hails from a family of jockeys, including his father and his younger brother Colby.

Pedigree Notes: Mystik Dan is from the sixth crop of Goldencents, the 2013 Santa Anita Derby victor and a two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. By leading sire Into Mischief, Goldencents has turned into a nice sire himself with standouts like 2019 Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards, 2019 Indiana and West Virginia Derby winner Mr. Money, and multiple Grade 1 winner Going to Vegas among his runners who have thrived going longer distances. Adding a Kentucky Derby winner to the list should no doubt provide Goldencents a nice boost.

The aforementioned Ma’am, by Colonel John, is the dam (mother) of Mystik Dan. She won four of 23 starts for McPeek, the Gasaway family, and Daniel Hamby at distances ranging from a mile to 1 1/16 miles. Grade 1 winners Siphonic, Smooth Like Strait, and Laragh along with multiple graded stakes winners Summer Front and Dixie Dot Com are notable members of the family.

In terms of stamina, with the Belmont Stakes being cut back to 1 ¼ miles this year due to its temporary move to Saratoga Race Course, Mystik Dan has already excelled at the longest distance he will face in this Triple Crown. He would be cutting back to 1 3/16 miles should he target the Preakness or staying at 1 ¼ miles for the Belmont Stakes.

Triple Crown Potential: The big question trainer Kenny McPeek faces is, will Mystik Dan be ready to fire another top performance on two weeks rest in the Preakness? McPeek mentioned that the one time he previously brought the colt back on similar rest produced a disappointing fifth-place result, so it’s clear that turnaround is front and center on the trainer’s mind. Context is important, however, as Mystik Dan was 2 years old then and stretching out in distance from 5 ½ furlongs on Nov. 12 to one mile on Nov. 25 after earning a big speed figure for winning the former by 7 ¾ lengths.

That said, I do think Mystik Dan probably is more likely to duplicate or improve upon his Derby effort with five weeks of rest coming back in the Belmont Stakes rather than returning in two weeks for the Preakness at Pimlico and taking on a freshened Muth, who defeated him soundly in the Arkansas Derby.

Who knows? Mystik Dan might emerge from his Derby win brimming with confidence and show McPeek in the coming days that he is absolutely raring to go. In which case, it’s worth playing the hot hand in the Preakness and giving Mystik Dan a shot at winning the Triple Crown. He proved he was an elite 3-year-old in the Kentucky Derby and did so without taking a huge jump in terms of speed figures, so maybe Mystik Dan has a big of magic left for a trip to Baltimore.